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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd