A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
